How much are you willing to pay for a lesson? - A question that doesn't leave me alone. How much is it worth, and how much are you willing to pay for a lesson?
Now that I better understand how mutual funds work, I am very wary of what is coming in the next few hours. THe market has been beaten for 5 days, and the investors, the common people, are scared to death to loose their retirement savings. During the entire day, mutual funds will be receiving phone calls, people that will pull out o the market. But only at 4pm these thieves have to tell you how much money you have in your account. They will be able to wait a little longer, but before the closing bell we will see how much was pulled out today. Who thinks it will shut down for the first time in decades when it hits -10%? Hope not...
But it can go nowhere but down. And that is in spite of everybody's effort (willingly or not) to keep the illusion going, including, but not limited to, the Federal Reserve. The American investors are themselves pulling all their positions from markets overseas and moving them back, as can be seen by the crash on the emerging markets, and valuation of the dollar abroad. Nothing so far has been enough to fill the hole...
Friday, October 10, 2008
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Bail me out
When the stock market plummeted after the bailout plan was approved, Dr. Specialist said it was a "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior. Is he still sure that was the case? Would he say that the investors are still selling the news? After all, the market is still going down! In fact, the Fed, maybe because it disagreed with Dr. Spec, decided to lower the interest rates, exactly because of that. Does the Fed still think that the bailout did any good to the economy? Did the bailout fix the economy, Dr.?
Now Dr. Spec is saying that the market is behaving irrationally. Fine, is that why you got it wrong in the first place? You thought that you could model human being's behavior with sophisticated computer programs. Basically your team thought they would be able to Google "how many more junk mortgages will I be able to sell" and get an accurate response! In the end, maybe human behavior is not part of your expertise...
Now Dr. Spec is saying that the market is behaving irrationally. Fine, is that why you got it wrong in the first place? You thought that you could model human being's behavior with sophisticated computer programs. Basically your team thought they would be able to Google "how many more junk mortgages will I be able to sell" and get an accurate response! In the end, maybe human behavior is not part of your expertise...
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