Track futures...

To see what how the market will not perform today...

Stocks set for gains (http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/01/markets/premarkets/index.htm?postversion=2009050108).

Chrysler bankrupt, record jobless, markets up?

Yesterday it was announced a 6.1% decline on GDP for the first quarter this year, today jobless claims hit 6.27 million, Chrysler will file for bankrupcy, the flu is spreading like bad news but the market is pushing forward.

If there is one thing about the stock market to be learned is that it is really hard to follow it without being continuously surprised... at least if you have the misconception that the stock market has anything to do with the economy.

Why Chrysler matters?

Why Chrysler matters?
Chrysler is only a shadow of its former self, but that doesn't mean its potential closing wouldn't have a large impact on the industry and overall economy. By Chris Isidore

http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/02/news/companies/chrysler_outlook/index.htm?postversion=2009040217

"Due to the domino effect that would create, Chrysler estimates 2 million to 3 million jobs would be lost nationwide within three years, reducing household income by $150 billion a year, and cutting tax collections by an average of nearly $40 billion a year."

These are in fact very good points. However, it is only one side of the equation, only one thing considered. There are many other variables that are just as obvious and at least just as important on this analysis: How much will it cost to keep Chrysler in business? How much is Chrysler loosing every year? Who will fill the gap left behind by Chrysler? How many jobs this company will create, and how much will the household income and tax collections will go up?

Stocks up

Is the improvement in economic indicators happening because the crisis hit its peak already or just because people believe, or worse, hope, that is the case?

Why not blame capitalism for this mess?

Ref: Don't blame capitalism for this mess - A message to G-20 protesters: Free markets aren't the culprits. It's the way they've been manipulated.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/01/news/international/breaking_views.breakingviews/index.htm?postversion=2009040110

Knowing or not, mr. Dixon tries to answer a question by just repeating it. I took the liberty to do the same when choosing the title of this post.
His entire article is about re-stating the obvious, but he fails to address the real question: yes, we know that the rules have been changed in the middle of the game, but were there any options?

What would have happened if the rules of the "free market" hadn't been skewed?

Black carbon enlightens the dark age

Not long ago the “scientific” consensus seemed to be that global warming was mostly caused by CO2 emissions caused by human activity. Many times I was asked if I believed or not on “global warming”. Such question could not be taken seriously in a scientist’s perspective – belief is something any descent scientist should steer away from, but rather stick to our never-ending search for reality – but the possible answers were only two: yes, and I am a cool liberal scholar, or no, I am a retrograde conservative. Today this view has completely changed, but after the metamorphosis, the death of conviction also allowed for the birth of a much less aggressive approach: the answer to that question could very well be “We are not sure yet, but this is what we know about it…” but it is not absurd if you have, or used to have, a strong opinion about it…

It’s a relief to see common sense make its way back into the scientific community. And we don’t need to point fingers at who was acting as an inquisitor, but let’s not forget, at least, that we are ALL prone to it.

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n12/full/ngeo358.html

Soon

How much are you willing to pay for a lesson? - A question that doesn't leave me alone. How much is it worth, and how much are you willing to pay for a lesson?

Now that I better understand how mutual funds work, I am very wary of what is coming in the next few hours. THe market has been beaten for 5 days, and the investors, the common people, are scared to death to loose their retirement savings. During the entire day, mutual funds will be receiving phone calls, people that will pull out o the market. But only at 4pm these thieves have to tell you how much money you have in your account. They will be able to wait a little longer, but before the closing bell we will see how much was pulled out today. Who thinks it will shut down for the first time in decades when it hits -10%? Hope not...

But it can go nowhere but down. And that is in spite of everybody's effort (willingly or not) to keep the illusion going, including, but not limited to, the Federal Reserve. The American investors are themselves pulling all their positions from markets overseas and moving them back, as can be seen by the crash on the emerging markets, and valuation of the dollar abroad. Nothing so far has been enough to fill the hole...